Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 14.639629 16.706828 18.924566 21.476379 24.326988 27.408739 30.987819
2025-08-17 11.476689 14.273118 17.499246 21.478411 26.235204 31.719002 38.498024
2025-08-24 9.839248 12.936038 16.678870 21.502266 27.516387 34.728093 43.986138
2025-08-31 8.472300 11.719231 15.812823 21.300012 28.402538 37.219149 48.915627
2025-09-07 7.557417 10.924510 15.326973 21.429797 29.582954 40.001365 54.205611
2025-09-14 6.979551 10.496365 15.246553 22.030269 31.348299 43.559850 60.607264
2025-09-21 6.228291 9.736682 14.628021 21.817161 31.958728 45.573300 65.009766
2025-09-28 5.368435 8.727165 13.561147 20.872491 31.461752 46.017291 67.256379
2025-10-05 5.066103 8.510031 13.599820 21.482881 33.150229 49.500474 73.786231
2025-10-12 4.751456 8.239536 13.528423 21.908670 34.571143 52.644499 79.944614
2025-10-19 4.334142 7.764899 13.104652 21.763211 35.121786 54.542591 84.374116
2025-10-26 3.943006 7.294450 12.646078 21.521282 35.493208 56.168651 88.442120
2025-11-02 3.635118 6.942050 12.357702 21.539335 36.280817 58.473022 93.656263
2025-11-09 3.390107 6.675344 12.187340 21.730776 37.341502 61.226204 99.649205
2025-11-16 3.127881 6.351325 11.892259 21.688438 38.010933 63.386393 104.796008
2025-11-23 2.867966 6.006033 11.532340 21.507651 38.434368 65.165502 109.403510
2025-11-30 2.682307 5.781011 11.361869 21.630462 39.348814 67.734419 115.314214
2025-12-07 2.585513 5.717157 11.471005 22.238780 41.094200 71.683916 123.533911
2025-12-14 2.378597 5.416750 11.127605 22.022888 41.422538 73.345060 128.137761
2025-12-21 2.093912 4.930725 10.402548 21.070683 40.424007 72.778182 129.091619
2025-12-28 2.030757 4.898147 10.531825 21.686052 42.190240 76.852531 137.776900
2026-01-04 1.948905 4.817982 10.562274 22.115430 43.639525 80.438480 145.760409
2026-01-11 1.808190 4.596232 10.297934 21.968745 44.039464 82.248631 150.820279